Photo courtesy of the University archives For the students who met him, University President Emeritus Fr. Theodore Hesburgh was a powerful and memorable presence.Sophomore Andrew Lehmer met Hesburgh, who died Thursday at the age of 97, during his freshman year after attending a Latino retreat.“It was crazy how impactful his presence was,” Lehmer said. “You could sense every word meant something bigger.”Lehmer said he asked the former University president, civil rights activist, diplomat and priest what he could do to make his own life as meaningful as Hesburgh’s.“He told me ‘be a good Catholic,’” he said. “Obviously, that can be taken a lot of ways, but I’m trying to figure it out by actively pursuing the faith and keeping what he said in the back of my mind.”Sophomore Mary White, the president of Pasquerilla East Hall (PE), said a group of PE residents were supposed to meet with Hesburgh on Thursday afternoon. She said the dorm-wide response to the invitation to see Hesburgh was so overwhelming that the coordinators limited the visit to upperclassmen, though the meeting was eventually cancelled.To meet Hesburgh was a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity, White said.“It served as an integral Notre Dame experience,” she said. “It was something you would go on to tell your children about.”Junior Diego Valenzuela visited Hesburgh with his section of Stanford Hall last year, to talk with Hesburgh and hear his stories.“Just being in his presence was just unbelievable because this man has accomplished so much and done so many great things for Notre Dame and the United States and Catholics everywhere,” Valenzuela said.Late in his life, Hesburgh lost most of his sight as well as most of his mobility, but his mind remained sharp and his speaking powerful. Junior Jesse Hamilton said each time Hesburgh spoke to his ROTC class, he would be slowly led onstage.“It was such a slow, ginger process to get him up to the podium, and as soon as he spoke, he spoke with such clarity and sharpness,” Hamilton said. “It was incredible just to see how all of his mind was there and all the love he had for us. Any words that came out of his mouth, you knew were genuine, and just the couple times I met him, he inspired me to be the best Christian I can be, the best leader I can be. He will be greatly missed.”But for all his accomplishments — as a University president, as a leader in civil rights and Catholic education — and gravitas, students were struck by his congeniality and concern for each individual student.Junior Anthony Barrett also visited Hesburgh with his section from Stanford Hall. Barrett said the former president asked for each person’s name, hometown and major.“He would say something kind to each person,” Barrett said. “He’s done so much for us as a school, on a large level, and he also still took the time to get to know people on an individual level. That’s the kind of person that we should all aspire to be.”Junior Paul Coletti said he first met Hesburgh in front of the library named for him during a scavenger hunt in his freshman orientation weekend. Hesburgh stopped and spoke with the group.Later, Colletti became a University tour guide. During a tour Thursday, the day Hesburgh died, he told a group about Hesburgh’s accomplishments.“I told the girl who I was touring about how students are sometimes even called up to read to him, if they’re studying on the upper floors of the library, and she turned to her dad, and she was like, ‘I want to come here,’” he said. “… Little did I know.“He was a great University president. He was probably the closest thing to a living saint that I ever was in a picture with and shook hands with. He was certainly good for the University, but also good for Catholics everywhere.”Many students who never met Hesburgh also felt his influence. Junior Erin Bishop said in the days after his death, she kept thinking about his decision to make Notre Dame co-educational.“Without him, none of us would be here,” she said. “There would be no women here. That thought just keeps going through my head, you know? Without him, this wouldn’t be my life, and this is such a big part of my life. The University is really going to miss him. And I hope that they choose to celebrate his life rather than mourn his loss.”Junior Bryan Ricketts, student body president-elect, said he went to the 13th floor of the library after Hesburgh’s death to see his office. He said Hesburgh was instrumental in making Notre Dame co-ed and a premier research institution, and he looks to him for inspiration as a leader.“I hadn’t had the chance to speak to him after being elected; it was something I was hoping to do with the team,” Ricketts said. “He’s such an inspiration and left such a legacy.”Freshman Gabriel Gaspar never got the chance to meet Hesburgh, but when he heard of his death Thursday, he, like dozens of other students, headed to the Grotto to pay his respects.“He’s really affected a lot of people here,” he said. “Everyone I talk to, like my first week here, Fr. Hesburgh came up, like, ‘you should definitely meet him.’ He’s someone who can change your life. He’s someone who truly represents Notre Dame and really brings the meaning of it to this entire school.”Grotto candles were rearranged to spell “TED,” and people left a cigar and notes in candle holders. The gathering at the Grotto on Thursday also included an impromptu rendition of the Alma Mater. Freshman Will Lederer, who attended the event, said Hesburgh inspired a sense of community among Notre Dame students.“For the six months I’ve been here, I don’t think I’ve felt this way yet,” Letterer said. “Just the community, the service and the gratitude we owe Fr. Hesburgh, and the outpouring of support is just truly inspiring. It’s really heartwarming. I’m glad I was here.”Tags: Remembering Father Hesburgh, Student reactions
2. The market will lose a significant amount of supply from Iran and VenezuelaThe market will lose additional supply from Venezuela and Iran during the course of 2018. Although it is too early to know the full impact of US sanctions on Iranian production, Rystad Energy expects Iranian production to drop by ~700,000 bbl/d by December 2018, but the loss could be larger.“There are indications that Iranian oil exports have already begun dropping during the first half of June, mostly to Europe. We also expect Venezuelan production to decline a further 150,000 bbl/d towards year-end, with risks still skewed to the downside,” says Tonhaugen.In Rystad Energy’s view, the risk of production shortfall in fellow OPEC members Iran and Venezuela (possibly 850,000 bbl/d by year-end) and the ensuing risk of a price spike in the near term, causing “consumer anxiety”, is the most important reason underpinning the shift in Saudi Arabia’s policy stance since mid-May. Lastly, as an argument for raising the production targets, OPEC and the 10 participating non-OPEC producers can claim to have over-complied with the target cuts to date. When calculating compliance with the cut agreement “smartly” by excluding OPEC members Libya and Nigeria from the calculations, the 12 remaining OPEC countries and the 10 participating non-OPEC countries produced nearly 800,000 bbl/d below the cut targets in May 2018.“The over-compliance has largely been helped by declines in Venezuela and Mexico, although Saudi Arabia has also cut 80,000 bbl/d more than required to date (January 2017 through May 2018) while Kazakhstan has increased its production by 70,000 bbl/d on average as Kashagan has ramped-up,” Tonhaugen says.The 12 OPEC countries (OPEC-12) have on average cut production by 250,000 bbl/d more than the agreed cut target of 1.159 mmbbl/d to date (January 2017 through May 2018). The 10 non-OPEC countries have cut production by less than their pledge, by 410,000 bbl/d on average versus their target of 546,000 bbl/d. Kazakhstan has increased production by 70,000 bbl/d on average as Kashagan has ramped-up, while Mexican production has averaged 76,000 bbl/d below its target cut of 100,000 bbl/d to date (January 2017 through May 2018).Valid arguments to hike output 5. OPEC + Non-OPEC have over-complied with the target cuts to date The risk of unplanned supply disruptions is on the rise, exemplified by the resumption of outages in Nigeria in May 2018 (Forcados, Bonny Light) and last week in Libya where the Ras Lanuf and Es Sider ports were shut due to rebel attacks causing a production loss of 400,000 bbl/d.“With the oil market already in a 720,000 bbl/d deficit for 2Q before the Libya outage, the tightness already apparent in the market gives any outage greater significance and potential market sway,” Tonhaugen says. 3. US production growth is limited by takeaway constraints in the Permian 4. The risk for new unplanned supply disruptions (eg. Libya) would exacerbate the already tight global oil market situation The growth from US shale will be limited to 100,000-150,000 bbl/d per month at current oil prices and differentials, owing mostly to pipeline takeaway constraints in the Permian.“Our latest shale activity data suggests fracking activity will stay largely flat in the Permian from April towards year-end, but production will grow robustly,” says Artem Abramov, vice president of shale research at Rystad Energy.Therefore, in the current market where the combined effect of demand growth and supply shortfalls is in the magnitude of 2 mmbbl/d, OPEC is again the only effective swing producer. 1. Global oil demand will increase in 2H 2018 versus 1H 2018 As the OPEC meeting is underway in Vienna on Friday to discuss the path forward, the Norwegian energy intelligence group Rystad Energy has shared a list of five reasons in support of an output hike.Photo by Sergio Russo, Flickr. Shared under CC BY-SA 2.0 licenseTo remind, Khalid al Falih, Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Energy on Thursday called for an increase in production, following 18 months of restrictions agreed in December 2016. He said demand in the second half of the year would be more than the first half by two million barrels per day.“OPEC analysis indicates that if we took no action, the supply deficit in the second half of the year could rise to an unacceptably high figure of 1.7 million barrels per day, and OECD inventories would be further drawn down by another 300 million barrels. But the downside does not stop there. This evolving situation could have an exceedingly negative impact on oil demand growth,” Al Falih said, calling for the output to be lifted.Rystad: Output to grow with or without consensusAccording to Rystad Energy, during the ninth meeting of the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee last night, the OPEC Heads of Delegation reached a preliminary agreement to increase output from the group by a nominal 1 million barrels per day.“Our view is that there are fundamental signals within the market that show this decision is an essential move to avoid an overly tight market and potential price spike in the second half of this year,” says Bjørnar Tonhaugen, vice president of oil market research at Rystad Energy. “If no consensus is reached, Saudi Arabia and Russia will likely choose to raise output regardless, possibly in a coalition with other countries – which would also exacerbate tensions with Iran.”In a release on Friday, Rystad has shared five reasons it feels the OPEC should agree on an increase in production. See below: By Rystad Energy’s estimates, global oil products demand in the third quarter will increase by 1.1 mmbbl/d quarter-on-quarter, owing to the seasonally higher demand for transportation fuels during 3Q across the globe, increased power generation demand in the Middle East and strong NGLs demand growth in the US. Demand stays largely flat on 3Q during 4Q, supported by the ongoing global economic expansion. Rystad feels OPEC has valid fundamental arguments for raising production to avoid an overly tight oil market in the second half of 2018 leading to a potential price spike.“Last night (June 21), the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee reached a preliminary agreement to increase production by a nominal 1 million barrels per day, despite opposition from the Iranian delegation. The proposal would effectively raise production by 600,000 bbl/d as countries like Venezuela and Mexico are unable to increase output. Such an increase is warranted by our supply-demand balances, which incorporated a 500,000 bbl/d increase by Saudi Arabia and Russia,” Rystad said.